How Climate Change Is Reshaping Coffee Regions

The global climate is changing at a pace that coffee — a crop evolved for narrow temperature, rainfall, and altitude conditions — cannot easily adapt to. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, more frequent extreme weather events, and the ecological disruptions that accompany these changes are already reshaping where coffee can be grown, how it performs, and what it costs to produce. For an industry that depends on the environmental stability of tropical growing regions — and for the hundreds of millions of people whose livelihoods depend on coffee farming — climate change is not a future threat but a present reality whose consequences are measurable, accelerating, and deeply consequential.

Temperature Impacts on Arabica Coffee

Arabica coffee — the species that accounts for roughly sixty percent of global production and the vast majority of the specialty market — has an optimal growing temperature range of approximately 18 to 22 degrees Celsius annual average. Temperatures consistently above 25 degrees accelerate cherry maturation beyond the rate at which the bean can accumulate the complex sugars and acids that define quality, producing simpler, flatter cups. Temperatures above 30 degrees cause physiological stress that reduces yields, increases susceptibility to disease, and can eventually kill the plant.

Global average temperatures have already risen approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and the warming is not evenly distributed — tropical highland regions where coffee is grown have experienced warming rates that in some areas exceed the global average. Research projections suggest that by 2050, the area suitable for Arabica production could decline by as much as fifty percent under moderate warming scenarios. This does not mean half the world’s coffee disappears — it means the geographic zones where Arabica can thrive shift, contract, and move to higher elevations where the cooler temperatures the plant requires still exist. The specific mechanisms through which altitude creates the growing conditions Arabica needs are examined in our article on how altitude affects coffee flavor and bean density.

Rainfall Disruption

Coffee depends on predictable rainfall patterns — adequate moisture during the growing season and a defined dry period that triggers flowering and synchronizes cherry maturation. Climate change is disrupting these patterns in multiple ways. Some regions are experiencing more erratic rainfall — longer dry spells punctuated by intense precipitation events rather than the steady, distributed rainfall that coffee needs. Others are experiencing shifts in the timing of wet and dry seasons that desynchronize the flowering and fruiting cycles the plant has adapted to.

Erratic rainfall creates cascading problems. Drought stress during cherry development reduces bean size, lowers yields, and can cause trees to shed fruit prematurely. Excessive rainfall during harvest promotes fungal diseases, causes cherries to split, and makes post-harvest drying difficult — particularly for natural-processed coffees that require extended sun drying. Flooding and landslides during extreme precipitation events can destroy farms and infrastructure, wiping out years of investment in a single storm. The unpredictability of these events makes long-term planning — which crops to plant, which varieties to invest in, which infrastructure to build — increasingly difficult for farmers whose livelihoods depend on decisions made years before their consequences are known.

Pests and Diseases

Rising temperatures are expanding the geographic range of coffee’s most destructive pests and diseases. Coffee leaf rust — a fungal disease caused by Hemileia vastatrix — thrives in warm, humid conditions and has historically been limited to lower altitudes where temperatures are favorable. As temperatures rise, leaf rust is migrating to higher-altitude regions that were previously too cool for the pathogen, devastating farms that had no prior exposure and no resistant varieties planted.

The coffee berry borer — a beetle that tunnels into coffee cherries and feeds on the seed — is similarly expanding its range as warmer temperatures allow it to survive and reproduce at elevations that were previously inhospitable. These pest and disease pressures compound the direct effects of temperature and rainfall disruption, creating a compounding stress environment that pushes producers toward economic crisis. The role of breeding programs in developing resistant varieties is explored in our article on disease-resistant coffee varieties and agricultural innovation.

Regions Most Affected

Central America

Central American coffee-producing countries — Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica — are among the most climate-vulnerable regions. Many farms operate at altitudes and temperatures near the upper end of Arabica’s viability, and further warming threatens to push them beyond the margin. The devastating coffee leaf rust epidemic of 2012-2013, which destroyed a significant percentage of the region’s production, was exacerbated by climate conditions that favored the pathogen’s spread and is widely viewed as a preview of what increasing climate pressure will produce.

Brazil

Brazil, the world’s largest producer, faces a different set of climate risks. The country’s coffee regions are already at relatively low altitudes and high temperatures compared to other origins, and further warming threatens yield stability. Brazil has also experienced increasing frost risk in its southern growing regions as destabilized atmospheric patterns produce more frequent polar air intrusions — a counterintuitive consequence of climate change that has damaged crops in multiple recent seasons.

East Africa

Ethiopia and Kenya face rising temperatures that are pushing optimal growing zones higher into mountain environments where available land is limited and often ecologically sensitive. Uganda, one of Africa’s largest producers, has experienced significant shifts in the altitudinal range where coffee can be grown successfully, with lower-altitude farms becoming increasingly marginal and higher-altitude areas becoming newly viable but requiring infrastructure development to support production.

Adaptation Strategies

Coffee producers and researchers are pursuing adaptation strategies across multiple fronts. Shade management — planting or maintaining canopy trees over coffee — moderates temperature extremes and provides a buffer against the most immediate thermal stress. Varietal development — breeding and selecting for heat tolerance, drought resistance, and disease resistance — targets the genetic adaptation of the plant itself. Irrigation infrastructure helps manage rainfall variability. Agroforestry diversification reduces economic dependence on coffee alone, building resilience against the income volatility that climate-driven production losses create. The broader context of how terroir and environmental conditions shape coffee quality under changing conditions is explored in our article on how terroir shapes coffee flavor.

What This Means for the Industry and Consumers

Climate change will reshape the geography, economics, and flavor landscape of coffee over the coming decades. Some currently celebrated origins may decline in quality or production volume. New regions may emerge as viable growing areas. Prices will likely rise as production costs increase and growing zones contract. The coffees available to consumers in 2050 may come from different places, taste different, and cost more than the coffees available today.

For the industry, adaptation requires investment in research, agricultural extension, and infrastructure at a scale that far exceeds current spending. For consumers, understanding the climate pressures facing coffee production provides context for the pricing and availability changes that are already beginning — and motivation for supporting the producers and organizations working to ensure that coffee farming remains viable in a warming world.

Conclusion

Climate change is not a hypothetical threat to coffee — it is an active force reshaping growing regions, amplifying pest and disease pressure, disrupting the rainfall patterns that coffee depends on, and pushing the thermal boundaries of Arabica viability. The consequences are measurable today and projected to intensify over the coming decades. Adaptation is possible but requires investment, innovation, and the recognition that the environmental stability on which coffee has historically depended can no longer be taken for granted. Every cup of coffee exists within this changing climate context, and the decisions made now — by producers, by industry, and by consumers — will determine what coffee looks like for the next generation. The question is not whether coffee will change but whether the industry can adapt fast enough to sustain the livelihoods, the landscapes, and the cup quality that the world has come to depend on.